EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 16, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 13, 2013 10:13 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
Add a comment EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 16, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD tumbled to trade at 1.3289 down by 10 pips in the early European session. EU employment data was positive with Q/Q above expectations while Y/Y missed the mark but overall showed an improvement.  The US dollar is trading in the green gaining 10 points as traders prepare for a barrage of data from the US. Retail sales are expected to print better than forecast while PPI and CPI are expected to remain in line with forecast. Traders are watching carefully for any clue as how the FOMC will decide at next week’s meeting.

The dollar edged higher against the euro on Thursday after data showed a sharp fall in U.S. weekly jobless claims and a contraction in euro zone industrial output. But the dollar slipped versus the yen as U.S. Treasury yields fell and some traders said that while the Federal Reserve will likely start reducing stimulus next week, the move will be smaller than initially thought. Uncertainty about the timing and pace of Fed action grew after last week’s disappointing U.S. August employment report. Thursday’s U.S. jobless claims data further clouded the picture as much of the decline appeared due to technical problems in claims processing. Analysts expect major currencies to be in a holding pattern going into the Fed’s meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday. Before that, U.S. retail sales and consumer prices will be closely watched.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.    

Economic Data September 13, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

View the original article here

Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 16-20, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 14, 2013 10:12 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
Add a comment Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 16-20, 2013 Forecast

Introduction: Natural gas is nevertheless a major commodity in its own right, which is used for everything from cooking food to heating houses during the winter. Natural Gas is growing much faster than either of its non-renewable fossil fuel competitors, oil and coal.

Do not miss the weekly U.S. gas inventories report. The figures are issued by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) every Thursday afternoon at 15:30 (released Friday at 15:30 if there was a U.S. bank holiday on Monday). Here’s a link to the latest EIA report. The main natural gas moving figure in there is the change in inventories from the previous week. When it comes to the gas inventories report, we’re talking about billions of cubic feet, Bcf for short.

When the actual change in inventories number is released, it is the deviation from the expected number that is really important. If the actual inventories figure shows a 24 Bcf rise when an 84 Bcf increase was expected, then that is actually positive for the price of natural gas. All else equal, the price of natural gas should rise after the release.

A barrel of oil has roughly 6 times the energy content of natural gas. If the fuels were perfect substitutes, oil prices would tend to be about 6 times natural gas prices. However, due to various market characteristics discussed briefly above and the ease of using oil, the price of oil has been following a pattern of 8-12 times that of natural gas. However that ratio has spiked dramatically since March 2009.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas surprised traders this week closing new near the weekly high of 3.675 after EIA weekly inventories showed a climb in demand. The commodity closed at 3.675 climbing from the opening on Monday at 3.546 adding almost 13 cents for the week. The US approved a 4th major gas export project this week while the Obama Administration chastised the DOE and Energy Administration for dragging their feet on approvals.

Gas rose 1.1 percent as forecasters including Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland, predicted above-normal temperatures from the Midwest to Texas next week. Highs this week in Chicago, New York and Washington topped 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32 Celsius).

Natural gas inventories rose 65 billion cubic feet last week to 3.253 trillion, above-the five-year average gain of 62 billion for the period, EIA data show. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg forecast an advance of 68 billion. A surplus to the five-year average held at 1.4 percent for a second week. Supplies were 5 percent below year-earlier inventories, compared with 6.2 percent the previous seven days.

Storms in the Gulf of Mexico, which includes the bay, tend to be closely watched because of their proximity to oil and natural gas producing and refining. The Gulf is home to about 5.6 percent of U.S. gas output. In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Gabrielle was moving north-northeast with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph on track to the Canadian Maritime provinces, the hurricane center said.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 4.612 on Jul 18, 2011

Average: 3.307 over this period

Lowest: 1.902 on Apr 20, 2012

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

View the original article here

10 Year Gilt December contract Daily Forecast – 13 September 2013

Posted September 13, 2013 17:04 (GMT) | By Jason Sen | Print | Font Size      
Add a comment 10 Year Gilt December contract Daily Forecast - 13 September 2013

Gilts for December opened above 107.50/54 which acted nicely as support & hit 108.00/03 for a selling opportunity with stops above 108.15. We topped at 108.14 but with a strong close we could push above here today to fill the gap at 108.38/41. We should struggle here as we become overbought short term but a break higher could then target 108.74/76 for a selling opportunity.

Below 108.00 is more negative & target 107.84 then 107.70/65. A low for the day is possible here but watch for a break below 107.53/49 to trigger further selling pressure towards 107.36 then 107.20.

Written by: http://www.daytradeideas.com/

 

View the original article here

MIB Forecast September 13, 2013, Technical Analysis

Posted September 13, 2013 5:55 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis | Print | Font Size      
Add a comment

The MIB as you can see went back and forth during the session on Thursday, but essentially formed a neutral candle. At the end of the day, we were slightly negative, but in the end we still think that the market has quite a bit of support below. Because of this, we are buyers but we need to see this market clear the 17,700 level in order to start buying. If we do fall from this area, we will simply wait for the right supportive candle in order to take advantage of cheaper prices.

MIB Forecast September 13, 2013, Technical Analysis

View the original article here

Nikkei Forecast September 13, 2013, Technical Analysis

Posted September 13, 2013 5:58 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis | Print | Font Size      
Add a comment

The Nikkei as you can see went back and forth during the session on Thursday, essentially getting nowhere in the end. It looks like we may be ready to pull back a little bit, and quite frankly that’s okay because we think there’s plenty of support below. We are especially interested in the ¥14,000 level, as we think that area will bring in a lot of buyers. As far as selling is concerned, we see absolutely no reason to, especially considering that the Bank of Japan is actively working to keep the Nikkei afloat. Going forward, we fully expect to be bullish though.

View the original article here

Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 13, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 13, 2013 14:12 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk | Print | Font Size      
Add a comment

December High Grade Copper futures are trading lower despite a weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales report and a falling U.S. Dollar.

After Thursday’s break through 3.2200 reaffirmed the downtrend, the market broke sharply into a major retracement zone at 3.2343 to 3.1840. In addition, the market took out an uptrending Gann angle at 3.2135. This puts copper in a position to challenge the next Gann angle at 3.1335.

Daily December High Grade Copper

Although downside momentum is building, the prolonged move in price and time has the market ripe for a closing price reversal bottom. In addition, traders may be looking to pare positions later in the day as they prepare for next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.

Next week, the Fed will decide how much to reduce its monthly monetary stimulus. Interest rates may rise after the decision, leading to a stronger dollar. This could hurt dollar-denominated copper further because it may reduce demand from foreign investors.

Traders should look for a sideways-to-lower trade early in the session, but may mount a turnaround into the close.

View the original article here

Metals Pack Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 16-20, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Posted September 14, 2013 9:51 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
Add a comment

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver ended the week on a down note as precious metals lost their appeal. Silver traded as low as 21.42 but rebounded to end at 22.243 while Copper  closed at 3.205. The base metals pack traded on a negative note as positive employment data from the US in yesterday’s trade and estimates of positive data from US in evening session fuelled QE taper concerns that could be announced in the FOMC meet next week. Strength in the DX acted as a negative factor. Weak global market sentiments added to the downside pressure on prices.

This week prices will be closely associated to the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors turned their attention away from Syria as the risk of a U.S. military strike receded. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov were set to conclude the final day of talks in Geneva on Friday to study the proposal for Damascus to give up its chemical weapons. Instead, market participants focused more on the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting next week, waiting to see whether the central bank will start scaling back its $85-billion-a-month asset-purchase program. Analysts speculate that recent upbeat data will make for a strong enough case for the Fed to begin the tapering process at the meeting.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 9-13 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 44.188 on Aug 22, 2011

Average: 31.108 over this period.

Lowest: 18.183 on Jun 28, 2013

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

View the original article here