EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 16, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 13, 2013 10:13 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD tumbled to trade at 1.3289 down by 10 pips in the early European session. EU employment data was positive with Q/Q above expectations while Y/Y missed the mark but overall showed an improvement.  The US dollar is trading in the green gaining 10 points as traders prepare for a barrage of data from the US. Retail sales are expected to print better than forecast while PPI and CPI are expected to remain in line with forecast. Traders are watching carefully for any clue as how the FOMC will decide at next week’s meeting.

The dollar edged higher against the euro on Thursday after data showed a sharp fall in U.S. weekly jobless claims and a contraction in euro zone industrial output. But the dollar slipped versus the yen as U.S. Treasury yields fell and some traders said that while the Federal Reserve will likely start reducing stimulus next week, the move will be smaller than initially thought. Uncertainty about the timing and pace of Fed action grew after last week’s disappointing U.S. August employment report. Thursday’s U.S. jobless claims data further clouded the picture as much of the decline appeared due to technical problems in claims processing. Analysts expect major currencies to be in a holding pattern going into the Fed’s meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday. Before that, U.S. retail sales and consumer prices will be closely watched.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.    

Economic Data September 13, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

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Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 16-20, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 14, 2013 10:12 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
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Introduction: Natural gas is nevertheless a major commodity in its own right, which is used for everything from cooking food to heating houses during the winter. Natural Gas is growing much faster than either of its non-renewable fossil fuel competitors, oil and coal.

Do not miss the weekly U.S. gas inventories report. The figures are issued by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) every Thursday afternoon at 15:30 (released Friday at 15:30 if there was a U.S. bank holiday on Monday). Here’s a link to the latest EIA report. The main natural gas moving figure in there is the change in inventories from the previous week. When it comes to the gas inventories report, we’re talking about billions of cubic feet, Bcf for short.

When the actual change in inventories number is released, it is the deviation from the expected number that is really important. If the actual inventories figure shows a 24 Bcf rise when an 84 Bcf increase was expected, then that is actually positive for the price of natural gas. All else equal, the price of natural gas should rise after the release.

A barrel of oil has roughly 6 times the energy content of natural gas. If the fuels were perfect substitutes, oil prices would tend to be about 6 times natural gas prices. However, due to various market characteristics discussed briefly above and the ease of using oil, the price of oil has been following a pattern of 8-12 times that of natural gas. However that ratio has spiked dramatically since March 2009.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas surprised traders this week closing new near the weekly high of 3.675 after EIA weekly inventories showed a climb in demand. The commodity closed at 3.675 climbing from the opening on Monday at 3.546 adding almost 13 cents for the week. The US approved a 4th major gas export project this week while the Obama Administration chastised the DOE and Energy Administration for dragging their feet on approvals.

Gas rose 1.1 percent as forecasters including Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland, predicted above-normal temperatures from the Midwest to Texas next week. Highs this week in Chicago, New York and Washington topped 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32 Celsius).

Natural gas inventories rose 65 billion cubic feet last week to 3.253 trillion, above-the five-year average gain of 62 billion for the period, EIA data show. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg forecast an advance of 68 billion. A surplus to the five-year average held at 1.4 percent for a second week. Supplies were 5 percent below year-earlier inventories, compared with 6.2 percent the previous seven days.

Storms in the Gulf of Mexico, which includes the bay, tend to be closely watched because of their proximity to oil and natural gas producing and refining. The Gulf is home to about 5.6 percent of U.S. gas output. In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Gabrielle was moving north-northeast with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph on track to the Canadian Maritime provinces, the hurricane center said.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 4.612 on Jul 18, 2011

Average: 3.307 over this period

Lowest: 1.902 on Apr 20, 2012

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

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10 Year Gilt December contract Daily Forecast – 13 September 2013

Posted September 13, 2013 17:04 (GMT) | By Jason Sen | Print | Font Size      
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Gilts for December opened above 107.50/54 which acted nicely as support & hit 108.00/03 for a selling opportunity with stops above 108.15. We topped at 108.14 but with a strong close we could push above here today to fill the gap at 108.38/41. We should struggle here as we become overbought short term but a break higher could then target 108.74/76 for a selling opportunity.

Below 108.00 is more negative & target 107.84 then 107.70/65. A low for the day is possible here but watch for a break below 107.53/49 to trigger further selling pressure towards 107.36 then 107.20.

Written by: http://www.daytradeideas.com/

 

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MIB Forecast September 13, 2013, Technical Analysis

Posted September 13, 2013 5:55 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis | Print | Font Size      
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The MIB as you can see went back and forth during the session on Thursday, but essentially formed a neutral candle. At the end of the day, we were slightly negative, but in the end we still think that the market has quite a bit of support below. Because of this, we are buyers but we need to see this market clear the 17,700 level in order to start buying. If we do fall from this area, we will simply wait for the right supportive candle in order to take advantage of cheaper prices.

MIB Forecast September 13, 2013, Technical Analysis

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Nikkei Forecast September 13, 2013, Technical Analysis

Posted September 13, 2013 5:58 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis | Print | Font Size      
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The Nikkei as you can see went back and forth during the session on Thursday, essentially getting nowhere in the end. It looks like we may be ready to pull back a little bit, and quite frankly that’s okay because we think there’s plenty of support below. We are especially interested in the ¥14,000 level, as we think that area will bring in a lot of buyers. As far as selling is concerned, we see absolutely no reason to, especially considering that the Bank of Japan is actively working to keep the Nikkei afloat. Going forward, we fully expect to be bullish though.

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Comex High Grade Copper Futures Technical Analysis – September 13, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 13, 2013 14:12 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk | Print | Font Size      
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December High Grade Copper futures are trading lower despite a weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales report and a falling U.S. Dollar.

After Thursday’s break through 3.2200 reaffirmed the downtrend, the market broke sharply into a major retracement zone at 3.2343 to 3.1840. In addition, the market took out an uptrending Gann angle at 3.2135. This puts copper in a position to challenge the next Gann angle at 3.1335.

Daily December High Grade Copper

Although downside momentum is building, the prolonged move in price and time has the market ripe for a closing price reversal bottom. In addition, traders may be looking to pare positions later in the day as they prepare for next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.

Next week, the Fed will decide how much to reduce its monthly monetary stimulus. Interest rates may rise after the decision, leading to a stronger dollar. This could hurt dollar-denominated copper further because it may reduce demand from foreign investors.

Traders should look for a sideways-to-lower trade early in the session, but may mount a turnaround into the close.

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Metals Pack Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 16-20, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Posted September 14, 2013 9:51 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver ended the week on a down note as precious metals lost their appeal. Silver traded as low as 21.42 but rebounded to end at 22.243 while Copper  closed at 3.205. The base metals pack traded on a negative note as positive employment data from the US in yesterday’s trade and estimates of positive data from US in evening session fuelled QE taper concerns that could be announced in the FOMC meet next week. Strength in the DX acted as a negative factor. Weak global market sentiments added to the downside pressure on prices.

This week prices will be closely associated to the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors turned their attention away from Syria as the risk of a U.S. military strike receded. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov were set to conclude the final day of talks in Geneva on Friday to study the proposal for Damascus to give up its chemical weapons. Instead, market participants focused more on the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting next week, waiting to see whether the central bank will start scaling back its $85-billion-a-month asset-purchase program. Analysts speculate that recent upbeat data will make for a strong enough case for the Fed to begin the tapering process at the meeting.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 9-13 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 44.188 on Aug 22, 2011

Average: 31.108 over this period.

Lowest: 18.183 on Jun 28, 2013

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

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SXF Forecast for 13 September 2013

Posted September 13, 2013 17:14 (GMT) | By Jason Sen | Print | Font Size      
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S&P/TSX 60 broke support at 735 for our buying opportunity at 731/730 but we over ran a little to 729/728. You will remember last Friday’s bearish formation signalling an end to the rally. Yesterday we have further confirmation with a break below 730 as we develop a short term bear trend. We should continue lower today to 726. We will look oversold short term so a low for the day is possible but do not be surprised to test 722/721.

Above 731 is less negative & could reach 733/734. Exit longs & try shorts up to 736 looking for a high for the day with stops above 738.

Written by: http://www.daytradeideas.com/

 

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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – September 13, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 13, 2013 11:53 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk | Print | Font Size      
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September E-mini S&P 500 futures are called slightly lower this morning ahead of Friday’s economic reports which include retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment reports. Economists are looking for a 0.5 percent increase in August retail sales, minus auto sales up only 0.3 percent.

The PPI report is expected to remain relatively flat at 0.2%. Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected to show a slight increase to 82.6 and Business Inventories reportedly rose 0.4%.

The news that Twitter is going public could underpin the market, but the main focus for traders is likely to be next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. On September 18, the Fed is expected to announce a plan to begin reducing monthly monetary stimulus by $10 to $15 billion.

Traders are still watching the situation in Syria. Russia and the U.S. continue to negotiate the terms of a deal whereby Syria would turn over its chemical weapons to an international organization. Headline news regarding this event could move the markets.

Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index

Technically, the main trend is up on the daily chart. The key resistance to watch is a downtrending Gann angle at 1690.50. A breakout over this angle could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

The daily chart indicates there is room to the downside with an uptrending Gann angle at 1668.75 a possible target.

Look for volatility to increase after the retail sales report. After that the index could become rangebound as investors position themselves for next week’s Fed monetary policy statement.

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Gold Fundamental Analysis September 16, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 13, 2013 10:10 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold continued to tumble today as European markets saw little action. Gold gave up almost $26 to trade at 1304.80 and may break below the 1300 level. Gold prices fell on Thursday as easing tensions over Syria hurt gold’s safe haven appeal. Fears of tapering by Fed in its policy meet next week and technical selling pushed prices down. US unemployment claims fell to the lowest since April 2006 and put further selling pressure on prices. U.S gold futures trading were momentarily halted at on Thursday by CME Group’s Stop Logic mechanism to prevent large movements. Gold prices are expected to move down as investors are likely to close their positions ahead of the weekend and the policy meet next week.

Gold prices slipped over 3% on Thursday, as better than expected initial jobless claims print released during the day reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve will this month start to unwind its monetary stimulus that has bolstered gold prices for the past four years. Prices also came under pressure after an industry survey indicated a bearish outlook for gold prices. Commodity prices are taking a knock ahead of the Federal open market committee meeting next week when the US Federal Reserve will most likely start tapering.  Markets are seeing a bit of profit-taking after a solid run yesterday and more profit-taking is therefore expected. There is also some volatility ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. All gold counters are down on lower commodity prices amid risk-off trade.

 ”Expect jumpy and nervous trade. The return to the focus on the Fed has not been inspired by anything new — it simply seems to be a switch in sentiment. Having obsessed over the Fed for months, the markets experienced a relief rally of sorts this week, but this was never sustainable ahead of next Wednesday’s decision on tapering,” RMB said according to BD Live.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 13, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

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Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 16-20, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 14, 2013 10:09 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold closed the week at 1326.10 down from the opening on Monday at 1388.50. On Friday precious metals hit bottom ahead of the release of US data and looked like they were going to break below the all important 1300 level but only touched 1304.80. The shiny metal tumbled over $62 for the week after tensions and safe haven trades dissipated. Early in the week the Russians offered an acceptable solution to the chemical weapons in Syria and pulled the plug US military action. By the end of the week President Obama asked congress to delay the vote on military intervention.

The prospect of the US launching a military strike against the Assad regime had sent the gold price to over US$1,430, but with any action now on hold following the diplomatic initiatives; it is next week’s US Federal Reserve meeting that is dominating the gold market. Many economists expect a reduction in the Fed’s current US$85bn per month bond-buying programme. Confirmation of tapering would help the dollar and hurt the gold price, which traditionally moves in the opposite direction to the US currency.

A report in Bloomberg suggested the Fed is contemplating a US$35-40bn cut in the monthly bond-buying program, which could also mark the start of a steady withdrawal all of the current stimulus measures. Goldman Sachs has been one of the most vocal bears of the gold price this year and was predicting a further decline as the stimulus measures are withdrawn.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 9-13 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 1911.60 on Sep 06, 2011

Average: 1633.45 over this period

Lowest: 1180.35 on Jun 28, 2013

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

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Euro Traders Tentative Ahead of Fed Meeting

Posted September 13, 2013 14:30 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk | Print | Font Size      
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After failing once again at a Fibonacci price level at 1.3318, despite a weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales report, the EUR/USD traded lower on Friday. The inability to breakout to the upside following the weak report suggests investors are a little nervous about taking a position ahead of next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

 

Unlike the Euro, the British Pound continued to post gains against the U.S. Dollar. The weak retail sales number suggests a sluggish economy for the U.S. in the third quarter. This comes at a time when the U.K. economy is showing signs of strengthening enough to warrant a change in Bank of England’s monetary policy. Currently, investors are buying the GBP/USD because they feel the growing economy may force the BoE to hike interest rates sooner than expected. 

Despite the weaker U.S. Dollar, long liquidation continues to pressure December gold. With the uncertainty lifted regarding Fed tapering, the dampening of the military threat against Syria by the U.S. and relatively low inflation, speculators cannot find a reason to hold on to gold. This selling pressure should continue until the market reaches a value area, or if peace talks breakdown between the U.S., Russia and Syria. 

November crude oil finished the session lower, but speculators continue to support the market while they wait out the results of the negotiations between Syria, Russia and the U.S. Speculators are still holding on to hopes that there will be military action against Syria because of its use of chemical weapons. Until there is an agreement in place, it looks as if the specs are willing support the market at this time.

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Crude & Brent Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 16-20, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 14, 2013 9:56 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil closed the week at 108.53 after hitting a high of 110.44 on Monday before the Russian solution to chemical weapons in Syria. By midweek the Russia diplomatic solution eased tensions and crude oil and Brent Oil calmed with Brent trading at 110. Crude climbed again on Wednesday after EIA inventories showed a drop in crude supplied and strong economic data helped boost demand and prices.

The US Federal Reserve’s meeting on 17-18 September will be a key event for commodity prices as many economists have tipped it as the time the US central bank will announce a tapering back of its US$85bn a month bond buying program. An illustration of how closely linked the gold price now is to the prospect of tapering came Friday when oil prices shot higher as US monthly jobs data came in below expectation while the previous two months figures were revised lower. The US Commerce Department said 169,00 new jobs were created in August, slightly less than the 173,000 jobs forecast before the data was announced. Figures for the previous two months were revised down by a combined 74,000 and though the unemployment rate fell slightly to 7.3%, this is still reportedly well above the level the Fed would like to see before it starts to rein back its policies. The data raised the possibility that tapering might be delayed, which gave an immediate boost to the gold price that jumped US$20 to US$1,387.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 9-13 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest:   110.55 on Mar 01, 2012

Average: 93.60 over this period

Lowest:   74.95 on Oct 04, 2011  

 

WEEKLY

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

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NASDAQ Forecast September 13, 2013, Technical Analysis

Posted September 13, 2013 5:56 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis | Print | Font Size      
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The NASDAQ as you can see fell during the session on Thursday as we continued to hang around the 3700 level. However, we feel that this market is well supported, so we are simply looking for some type of bullish candle or even a pullback that shows signs of support in order to go long. We have no plans to sell the NASDAQ as it has been so strong lately, and we think it is well supported all the way down to the 3580 level. Going forward, we fully expect to see 3800 next, followed by 4000.

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S&P 500 Forecast September 13, Technical Analysis

Posted September 13, 2013 5:51 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis | Print | Font Size      
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The S&P 500 fell during the session on Thursday as you can see, as we have bumped into significant resistance. However, we feel there are plenty of buyers below, and therefore we do not sell this market. We simply wait for some type of supportive candle in order to start buying as we do think that the market will eventually challenge the highs at the 1710 level. In fact, we believe options might be a great way to go right now simply because the calls are very cheap at the moment, and can be picked up while we wait for a pullback.

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CAC Forecast September 13, 2013, Technical Analysis

Posted September 13, 2013 5:52 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis | Print | Font Size      
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The CAC as you can see fell a bit during the session, but currently is sitting just underneath the recent highs. Because of this, we feel there is deftly a bullish tone to this market, but cannot buy quite yet until we clear the €4120 level on a daily close. That being said, we think that there is support below, so it makes sense of this market continues higher over the longer term. Nonetheless, we are on the sidelines until we get that trade signal, which of course we do not have quite yet. On the other hand, if we get a bit of a pullback, we think a supportive candle below would be a nice buying opportunity.

CAC Forecast September 13, 2013, Technical Analysis

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IBEX Forecast September 13, 2013, Technical Analysis

Posted September 13, 2013 5:53 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis | Print | Font Size      
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The IBEX as you can see rose during the session on Thursday, breaking above the €8900 level. It did give back some of the gains late in the day, but in the end this is a fairly bullish looking candle, and we believe that even if the market does pullback, that simply going to be an invitation to buy. Going forward, we fully expect the IBEX to be one of the stronger markets in the European Union, and because of this we are not interested in selling the market as it has shown itself to be so resilient time and time again.

IBEX Forecast September 13, 2013, Technical Analysis

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis September 16, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 13, 2013 10:07 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD climbed today after the CAD climbed for 3 days, the US dollar finally gained some momentum to trade at 1.0346 up by 22 points.  It looks like the Fed will only make a modest $10 billion tapering next week. So investors are adjusting their positions accordingly. The Fed will be very careful with tapering and will probably only dip its toe. Citi economists expect $10-15 billion of Fed tapering and no change to the withdrawal timetable, an outcome Citi’s global head of G10 FX Strategy, said would be neutral, or even slightly hawkish, relative to expectations.

Reflecting nervousness before the Fed meeting, euro/dollar one-week implied volatilities – a gauge of how sharp price swings will be in the near term – shot up. Canada’s dollar fell for the first time in five days as U.S. jobless claims reached the lowest level since 2006 last week, boosting bets the Federal Reserve will slow asset purchases at its policy meeting next week.

The currency erased gains after earlier touching an almost four-week high versus its U.S. peer as fewer Americans than forecast filing for jobless benefits bolstered the case for the U.S. central bank to scale back the quantitative-easing program some consider negative for the U.S. dollar. The Fed meets Sept. 17-18. The data followed a U.S. payrolls report last week that showed slower-than-projected August job growth, while Canada added positions at three times estimates.

The loonie ended its longest winning streak since July after first-time claims for unemployment insurance in the U.S. fell by 31,000 to 292,000 in the week ended Sept. 7, which also included the Labor Day holiday, according to Labor Department data released today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 330,000 applications according to Reuters.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 13, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

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USD/JPY Daily Forecast – 13 September 2013

Posted September 13, 2013 17:08 (GMT) | By Jason Sen | Print | Font Size      
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USDJPY broke 99.45/35 to test the 100 day moving average at 99.15/05. A low for the day was predicted & longs were held as we bounced above 98.95. We saw a good recovery to our first target of 99.70/80 for profit taking & topped exactly here. Watch the 99.00/95 & 99.80/85 levels again today. The outlook is more neutral so trade this range but be ready for a break higher to target 100.10/15. If we continue higher look for 100.35 before yesterday’s high at 100.60.

Immediate support is 99.45 but below here risks a retest of the 100 day moving average at 99.05/00. A low for the day is likely here but longs need stops below 98.90 for a test of the next support at 98.75/70 & a good buying opportunity.+

Written by: http://www.daytradeideas.com/

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DAX Forecast September 13, 2013, Technical Analysis

Posted September 13, 2013 5:57 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis | Print | Font Size      
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The DAX as you can see fell during the session after initially trying to rise. However, in the end the market essentially sat still and has formed a hammer. This hammer shows that the €8450 level should continue to be supportive, and because of that a break of the top of the candle is what we need to see in order to go along. Going forward, we fully expect this market to continue going bullish, and as a result we will not sell it. If the market falls, we will look at that as a buying opportunity.

DAX Forecast September 13, 2013, Technical Analysis

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30-Yr U.S. Treasury Bonds (US) Futures Technical Analysis – September 13, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 13, 2013 13:41 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk | Print | Font Size      
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Disappointing U.S. retail sales data is helping to underpin the December 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds this morning. The report demonstrates a sluggish third quarter economy. It shouldn’t however change the Fed’s mind about tapering its monthly monetary stimulus later in the month. It may however influence how much the central bank will cut.

Currently, the Fed is buying $85 billion per month in government bonds and mortgages. This new retail sales data along with the weak jobs data from earlier in the month could mean the Fed will reduce stimulus by only $10 to $15 billion as opposed to the previously expected $20 billion.

Daily December 30-Year Treasury Bonds

Technically, T-Bonds found support in a short-term retracement zone at 129’07 to 129’00. The subsequent rally has the market in a position to test a major retracement zone at 130’03 to 130’18. A breakout over this zone could trigger an acceleration into a downtrending Gann angle at 130’24.

Because of the uncertainty over the Fed decision, the bias may be to the upside today and early next week ahead of the big Fed meeting on September 17 and 18.

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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis September 16, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 13, 2013 10:17 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
Add a comment Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis September 16, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil dipped by $1.17 to trade at 107.44 while Brent Oil eased by 79 points to trade at 110.75. Crude oil prices rose more than 1% yesterday amid a decline in US crude oil stockpiles by 219,000 barrels last week as reported by the US Energy department. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reported that global oil supply is likely to increase in coming months, which weighed on prices and limited the upside. Better-than-expected initial jobless claims data print aided prospects of an early reduction in the Fed’s asset purchase program and further capped upside in prices. Today traders booked profits after the unexpected climb yesterday. As tensions in Syria continue to ease trader are once again looking at the situation in Libya were three ports remain closed to shipping holding up oil exports.

“The risk premium for Syria has come off but it’s still there because the potential for military action has only dropped from more likely to less likely,” said Kelly Teoh, market strategist at IG Markets in Singapore. Investors are hoping Washington and Moscow will reach a deal that will see Syria hand over its chemical weapons and avert an attack from American forces.  US Secretary of State John Kerry is due to meet his Russian counterpart in Geneva as the two sides seek a diplomatic solution to the crisis, sparked by the Assad regime’s alleged use of chemical weapons on its own civilians.

The consumer confidence index slipped in the United States driving oil prices down. The decline in the index was more severe than most analyst expected, dropping to 80.3 as opposed to the predicted 81.1. In our analyst´s opinion consumer´s outlook on the market was hurt by climbing gasoline prices and rising mortgage rates which are threatening to hurt housing market momentum. Market volatility and rising interest rates also present risks to confidence.
Analysts believe that the slip in confidence has caused oil futures for September to fall another dollar a barrel to nearly $103, the lowest price since July 9th. Last week oil prices dropped 3.1%, which is the first weekly decline in the last five weeks. The dip in consumer confidence has raised concerns over softer energy demand.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 13, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

WEEKLY

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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 16-20, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 14, 2013 9:53 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD ended a rollercoaster week just about where it started gaining after election results on Monday and keeping those gains throughout the week after Chinese trade balance and export data on Sunday supported the currency and the US dollar traded back at its normal ranges as tensions and safe haven trades dissipated after the Russians came up with an acceptable diplomatic solution to the chemical weapons in Syria.

It’s a busy week for the Reserve Bank of Australia, with the minutes of its latest board meeting, a conference appearance and the release of its quarterly bulletin all on the calendar. On Tuesday, the central bank will release the minutes of its September board meeting. The board decided to hold the official cash rate at 2.5 per cent, so all eyes will be on the commentary surrounding the decision.

 Wednesday will see RBA assistant governor Malcolm Edey take part in a panel at the Financial Services Institute of Australasia Conference 2013 in Sydney.

On Thursday, the Reserve Bank will publish its quarterly bulletin for the three months to September.

This week’s focus though will be primarily the FOMC decision. On Thursday, the biggest event of the week, the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will conclude, with the US Fed’s policy-making arm set to hand down its decision on interest rates. More importantly it will decide on whether to start tapering its stimulus program. Analysts expect the $US80 billion ($A86 billion) per month bond-buying program will be scaled back by around $US10 billion.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 9-13 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 1.0292 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.9114 USD Jun 30, 2013

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 16, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 13, 2013 10:09 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD remains the best market performer climbing to 1.5812 up by 7 pips. The data calendar contains a string of US figures later this afternoon. The most important of the latter is the advance retail sales figures. Markets will also receive consumer confidence, capacity utilization and PPI (producer price index) numbers. It is unlikely that any of these will surprise enough to affect the Fed’s decision next week, but the markets are very jumpy and could react strongly to the numbers.

There was no UK data today but overall sentiment is supportive of the pound ever since a rash of data ranging from employment changes to PMI all reported a strong turn around in the UK economy supported by an upgrade of GDP numbers. Sterling rose to an eight-month high against a basket of currencies on Friday on the view that a strengthening British economy will mean interest rates rising earlier than the central bank has flagged.  The pound’s trade-weighted index rose to 82.7, its highest since mid-January, as the UK currency stayed near multi-month highs against the dollar and the euro.

Adding to the picture of a stronger economy, second-tier data on Friday showed UK construction output rose by 2.2 per cent in July from June, with signs of more expansion to come as new orders jumped in the second quarter. The pound held steady against the dollar, which was broadly firmer against most other currencies on a report that US President Barack Obama could name former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Some in the market believe this could lead the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance. The US central bank is expected to announce next week it will start scaling back monetary stimulus.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.    

Economic Data September 13, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

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EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 16-20, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 14, 2013 10:00 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The EUR/USD ended the week a bit weaker after climbing to trade at 1.3324 the pair closed the week, at 1.3297. The US Census Bureau reported that although monthly retail sales were up modestly in August, they were lower than expected. Auto sales rose nearly 1% in August, but consumers cut back at other retailers, including clothing and sporting goods stores. Fueled by higher gas prices, producer prices rose more than expected, while the University of Michigan’s reading of consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since April.

Despite the weaker reports, many investors still think that the Fed will decide to begin scaling back its quantitative easing program at a meeting next week. The Fed’s bond buying drive has helped push stocks to record highs, and investors have worried that any sort of “tapering” will deflate the markets.

European data risk will be generally subdued. Norges Bank issues a rate decision Thursday, Germany releases its ZEW investor expectations survey that has been trending around a top for months and trade data arrives for the Eurozone. The euro-dollar rate was stable on Friday, days before the US Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting its US$85 billion stimulus in recognition of a strengthening US economy. Despite the prospects for less easy money flooding into the US economy, the euro held onto its recent gains, supported by rising confidence in Eurozone growth.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 9-13 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 1.4577USD on Jul 03, 2011

Average: 1.3165USD over this period.

Lowest: 1.2041USD on Jul 24, 2012

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

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E-mini Russell 2000 Index (TF) Futures Technical Analysis – September 13, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 13, 2013 13:17 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk | Print | Font Size      
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September E-mini Russell 2000 Index is trading flat after a disappointing U.S. retail sales report. Investors were looking for an increase of 0.5%; the report delivered a 0.2% reading. This is further evidence the U.S. economy slowed during the third quarter.

Although the retail sales report did not meet expectations, it should not alter the Fed’s plan to begin reducing monetary stimulus by the end of the month. Currently, the Fed is buying $85 billion per month in government bonds and mortgages. The recent weaker-than-expected jobs report suggests the central bank may reduce its purchases by $10 to $20 billion.

Daily September E-mini Russell 2000 Index

The main trend is up on the daily chart. The main range is 1006.20 to 1057.90 with a retracement zone at 1032.00 to 1025.90. This is the next major downside target should sentiment shift from bullish to bearish. The nearest Gann angle support is at 1038.20. On the upside, a trade through 1057.90 could trigger an acceleration to the contract high at 1062.00.

Besides the economy and the Fed meeting next week, investors are still watching developments between Russia, the U.S. and Syria. The news has been quiet; headline news could trigger volatile moves at any time. With the Fed meeting next week on September 17 and 18, traders may decide to pare positions ahead of the central bank’s next announcement. This could put pressure on the index today.

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Bund December contract Daily Forecast – 13 September 2013

Posted September 13, 2013 16:54 (GMT) | By Jason Sen | Print | Font Size      
Add a comment Bund December contract Daily Forecast - 13 September 2013

Bund December opened above the gap at 137.40/44, held this support & headed for our selling opportunity at 137.97/99. We topped almost exactly here at 137.94 & sold off sharply to 137.52 for a nice profit. We are overbought short term so having seen the hoped for recovery in to the end of the week & hit the 137.97/99 target we could continue lower today. Look for support at 137.40/35 but a break lower triggers further selling towards 137.01/98. A low for the day is very possible but any longs need stops below 136.86 for 136.60.

Above 137.70 is less negative & could allow a retest of 137.97/99 for a second selling opportunity with stops above 138.12.

Written by: http://www.daytradeideas.com/

 

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EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 16-20, 2013 Forecast

Posted September 14, 2013 10:01 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY closed the week well within its average trading range. The pair ended at 1.3210 after hitting a high of 133.37 this week. Earlier in the week the euro was trading on a negative bias as safe haven trades supported the US dollar and the Japanese currency. After military intervention eased the euro was able to recover its composure and the Japanese yen eased.

On Friday Prime Minister Abe approved the sale tax increase which has been waiting for his final approval and is part of his three arrow approach to being deflation. The Bank of Japan’s central aim is to achieve inflation rates of 2% in the next two years and reverse decades of stagnant growth. Stimulus plans in Japan make up a larger percentage of GDP than the quantitative easing programs designed by the Fed, and this can only weaken the yen as long as policymakers remain committed to this course of action.

Diverging policy in the U.S. and Japan has created bond-yield differentials in 10-year government debt that is now at multi-year highs above 2.2%. Confirmation that the Fed is truly ready to reduce monthly asset purchases and allow the U.S. economy to start working on its own merits will only propel these trends, and this could start as early as next week. Currently, markets are expecting the Fed to reduce monthly stimulus injections by $10 billion, so any number greater than that will push the U.S. dollar to new highs for the year.

Looking ahead, the fate of the yen rests on Prime Minister Abe’s level of commitment in achieving official inflation goals and weakening the currency to support export companies.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 9-13 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 133.80JPY on May 22, 2013

Average: 109.45JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on Jul 24, 2012

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia

Sep 16 09:10 Norway

Sep 17 08:30 Spain

Sep 17 09:30 Belgium

Sep 18 09:10 Sweden

Sep 18 09:30 Germany

Sep 18 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 08:30 Spain

Sep 19 08:50 France

Sep 19 09:30 UK

Sep 19 09:50 France

Sep 19 15:00 US

Sep 19 17:00 US

Sep 20 15:30 Italy

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Short Sterling Daily Forecast – 13 September 2013

Posted September 13, 2013 17:12 (GMT) | By Jason Sen | Print | Font Size      
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Dec 13 support at 9943/42, 9939/38 then 9934 & 9930. Resistance at the 100 & 200 day moving average at 99.46/47 then 9950 July high. Above here 9953/54 & 9956.

March 14 support at 9935, 9933/32, 9927/26 & 9922/21. Resistance at 9937/38, 9941/42 then the 200 day moving average at 9943 & July high at 9947 before 9949/50.

June 14 Support 9926/25, 9923/22, 9920 & 9915/14. Resistance at 9929, 9933/34, then the 100 day moving average at 9936/37 & 200 day moving average at 9939. July high at 9943/44 then 9949.

Sept 14 Support at 9914/13, 9909/08, 9901/00, 9998. Resistance at 9917, 9920, 9924, 9927/28, the 100 & day moving average at 9930/31 & 200 DMA at 9934.

Dec 14 Support at 9900, 9898, 9894/93, 9891/90, 9882/81, 9875. Resistance at 9905/06, 9910/11, 9914/15, 9918, 9920, 9923, 9927 & 9930/31.

Written by: http://www.daytradeideas.com

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Gold Falls to $1300 Critical Support

Posted September 13, 2013 17:16 (GMT) | By Haresh Menghani | Print | Font Size      
Add a comment On August 28, Gold touched $1433 marked by the upper trend-line of an ascending channel visible on daily chart.Since then the yellow metal has witnessed a steady decline towards the ascending channel lower trend-line support near $1360 level.On Thursday, Gold broke below the lower trend-line support and declined sharply to $1320, registering a loss of over 3%. In doing so the metal dropped below 100-day SMA support near $1340, also coinciding with 38.2% FibonacciRetracement Level of over 21% up-swing from June low to high formed in August.On Friday, Gold extended its downfall, slipping to a one-month low of $1305 and is now headed for decline of over 5% for the week.This $1300 – $1305 area represents 50% Fibonacci Retracement Levels of the yellow metals strong run from $681 to $1921 and June to August up-move.Should the metal break below $1300 psychological level, it might continue with its recent weakness immediately towards $1275 – $1270 support zone, representing 61.8% retracement level.Moreover, a close below $1300 would mark its lowest weekly closing since Mid-July, probably suggesting further downfall in the near-future towards $1225 – $1230 support zone.Alternatively, should the metal manage to hold above the $1300 support area, it could possibly witness a minor recovery initially towards $1327 and further towards the 100-day SMA , $1340, also coinciding with 38.2% retracement level. The $1340 region now seems to cap any near-term up-move for the yellow metal.However, should the metal manage to move back above $1340 strong resistance zone, it could continue appreciating in the near-term towards its next important resistance near $1375 – $1380 zone. Gold Falls to $1300 Critical Support

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Schatz December contract Daily Forecast – 13 September 2013

Posted September 13, 2013 17:10 (GMT) | By Jason Sen | Print | Font Size      
Add a comment Schatz December contract Daily Forecast - 13 September 2013

Schatz opened above 110.20/21 & held this support to test recent highs at 110.26/27. We are overbought short term in a bear trend so perhaps the bounce is now over. A dip back to support at 110.21 could be seen & a low for the day very possible. However id we continue lower look for the next support at 110.18/17 which should hold the downside at this stage. Any longs need stops below 110.14 though for 110.12/11.

However a break higher today can take prices as far as trend line & Fibonacci resistance at 110.31/32. Exit longs & try shorts expecting the bear trend to resume, with stops above 110.34.

Written by: http://www.daytradeideas.com/

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