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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis September 16, 2013 ForecastAnalysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil dipped by $1.17 to trade at 107.44 while Brent Oil eased by 79 points to trade at 110.75. Crude oil prices rose more than 1% yesterday amid a decline in US crude oil stockpiles by 219,000 barrels last week as reported by the US Energy department. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reported that global oil supply is likely to increase in coming months, which weighed on prices and limited the upside. Better-than-expected initial jobless claims data print aided prospects of an early reduction in the Fed’s asset purchase program and further capped upside in prices. Today traders booked profits after the unexpected climb yesterday. As tensions in Syria continue to ease trader are once again looking at the situation in Libya were three ports remain closed to shipping holding up oil exports.
“The risk premium for Syria has come off but it’s still there because the potential for military action has only dropped from more likely to less likely,” said Kelly Teoh, market strategist at IG Markets in Singapore. Investors are hoping Washington and Moscow will reach a deal that will see Syria hand over its chemical weapons and avert an attack from American forces. US Secretary of State John Kerry is due to meet his Russian counterpart in Geneva as the two sides seek a diplomatic solution to the crisis, sparked by the Assad regime’s alleged use of chemical weapons on its own civilians.
The consumer confidence index slipped in the United States driving oil prices down. The decline in the index was more severe than most analyst expected, dropping to 80.3 as opposed to the predicted 81.1. In our analyst´s opinion consumer´s outlook on the market was hurt by climbing gasoline prices and rising mortgage rates which are threatening to hurt housing market momentum. Market volatility and rising interest rates also present risks to confidence.
Analysts believe that the slip in confidence has caused oil futures for September to fall another dollar a barrel to nearly $103, the lowest price since July 9th. Last week oil prices dropped 3.1%, which is the first weekly decline in the last five weeks. The dip in consumer confidence has raised concerns over softer energy demand.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data September 13, 2013 actual v. forecast
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia
Sep 16 09:10 Norway
Sep 17 08:30 Spain
Sep 17 09:30 Belgium
Sep 18 09:10 Sweden
Sep 18 09:30 Germany
Sep 18 09:30 Portugal
Sep 19 08:30 Spain
Sep 19 08:50 France
Sep 19 09:30 UK
Sep 19 09:50 France
Sep 19 15:00 US
Sep 19 17:00 US
Sep 20 15:30 Italy
WEEKLY
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