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Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD climbed to close the week at 0.8134 gaining steadily from the open on Monday at 0.7978. Safe have trades the prior week had pushed the kiwi to a recent low against the strong US dollar. On Sunday strong Chinese data began to support the kiwi which was followed by a week of good numbers from China and easing in safe haven trading as a Russian proposal cooled military action from the US. Mid-week Graham Wheeler of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates and policy helping to secure a positive outlook for the kiwi.
The New Zealand dollar is heading for a 1.4% weekly gain after the Reserve Bank said it will probably start hiking rates next year, though the prospect of the US Federal Reserve unwinding its money printing program may prompt a weaker kiwi next week. A survey of nine traders and strategists on Monday predicted the local currency would trade between 77.20 US cents and 82 cents this week. Four picked it to gain; two expected a decline and three said it would remain unchanged.
The kiwi got a boost when central bank governor Graeme Wheeler said he will likely lift the official cash rate from its record-low 2.5% next year, adding half a percentage point to the forecast track of the 90-day bank bill rate, seen as a proxy for the OCR. That will probably be a short-lived gain as the Fed reviews its own monetary policy next week, and is expected to start tapering its US$85 billion monthly asset purchase program.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of September 9-13 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)
BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions
Historical: From 2011 to Present
Highest: 0.8842 USD on Aug 01, 2011
Average: 0.8131 USD over this period
Lowest: 0.7371 USD on Nov 25, 2011
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia
Sep 16 09:10 Norway
Sep 17 08:30 Spain
Sep 17 09:30 Belgium
Sep 18 09:10 Sweden
Sep 18 09:30 Germany
Sep 18 09:30 Portugal
Sep 19 08:30 Spain
Sep 19 08:50 France
Sep 19 09:30 UK
Sep 19 09:50 France
Sep 19 15:00 US
Sep 19 17:00 US
Sep 20 15:30 Italy
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