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Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD climbed today after the CAD climbed for 3 days, the US dollar finally gained some momentum to trade at 1.0346 up by 22 points. It looks like the Fed will only make a modest $10 billion tapering next week. So investors are adjusting their positions accordingly. The Fed will be very careful with tapering and will probably only dip its toe. Citi economists expect $10-15 billion of Fed tapering and no change to the withdrawal timetable, an outcome Citi’s global head of G10 FX Strategy, said would be neutral, or even slightly hawkish, relative to expectations.
Reflecting nervousness before the Fed meeting, euro/dollar one-week implied volatilities – a gauge of how sharp price swings will be in the near term – shot up. Canada’s dollar fell for the first time in five days as U.S. jobless claims reached the lowest level since 2006 last week, boosting bets the Federal Reserve will slow asset purchases at its policy meeting next week.
The currency erased gains after earlier touching an almost four-week high versus its U.S. peer as fewer Americans than forecast filing for jobless benefits bolstered the case for the U.S. central bank to scale back the quantitative-easing program some consider negative for the U.S. dollar. The Fed meets Sept. 17-18. The data followed a U.S. payrolls report last week that showed slower-than-projected August job growth, while Canada added positions at three times estimates.
The loonie ended its longest winning streak since July after first-time claims for unemployment insurance in the U.S. fell by 31,000 to 292,000 in the week ended Sept. 7, which also included the Labor Day holiday, according to Labor Department data released today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 330,000 applications according to Reuters.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data September 13, 2013 actual v. forecast
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia
Sep 16 09:10 Norway
Sep 17 08:30 Spain
Sep 17 09:30 Belgium
Sep 18 09:10 Sweden
Sep 18 09:30 Germany
Sep 18 09:30 Portugal
Sep 19 08:30 Spain
Sep 19 08:50 France
Sep 19 09:30 UK
Sep 19 09:50 France
Sep 19 15:00 US
Sep 19 17:00 US
Sep 20 15:30 Italy
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