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Crude & Brent Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 16-20, 2013 ForecastWeekly Analysis and Recommendation: Crude Oil closed the week at 108.53 after hitting a high of 110.44 on Monday before the Russian solution to chemical weapons in Syria. By midweek the Russia diplomatic solution eased tensions and crude oil and Brent Oil calmed with Brent trading at 110. Crude climbed again on Wednesday after EIA inventories showed a drop in crude supplied and strong economic data helped boost demand and prices.
The US Federal Reserve’s meeting on 17-18 September will be a key event for commodity prices as many economists have tipped it as the time the US central bank will announce a tapering back of its US$85bn a month bond buying program. An illustration of how closely linked the gold price now is to the prospect of tapering came Friday when oil prices shot higher as US monthly jobs data came in below expectation while the previous two months figures were revised lower. The US Commerce Department said 169,00 new jobs were created in August, slightly less than the 173,000 jobs forecast before the data was announced. Figures for the previous two months were revised down by a combined 74,000 and though the unemployment rate fell slightly to 7.3%, this is still reportedly well above the level the Fed would like to see before it starts to rein back its policies. The data raised the possibility that tapering might be delayed, which gave an immediate boost to the gold price that jumped US$20 to US$1,387.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of September 9-13 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ)
Historical: From 2011 to Present
Highest: 110.55 on Mar 01, 2012
Average: 93.60 over this period
Lowest: 74.95 on Oct 04, 2011
WEEKLY
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia
Sep 16 09:10 Norway
Sep 17 08:30 Spain
Sep 17 09:30 Belgium
Sep 18 09:10 Sweden
Sep 18 09:30 Germany
Sep 18 09:30 Portugal
Sep 19 08:30 Spain
Sep 19 08:50 France
Sep 19 09:30 UK
Sep 19 09:50 France
Sep 19 15:00 US
Sep 19 17:00 US
Sep 20 15:30 Italy
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